Some Political Analysis as referendum approaches in Venezuela

Excerpts from article by Anastasia O’Grady

When Venezuelans cast their votes on Feb. 15 they will be answering just one question: Do you approve of changing five articles in the constitution so as to allow for the indefinite re-election of the president, legislators, governors and mayors?

The referendum question did not originally include legislators, governors and mayors. But when an earlier proposal asked for indefinite re-election only for the president, it met with widespread skepticism. So Mr. Chávez decided to widen the field in the hope of picking up support. Even so, everyone knows this is a referendum on the president.

In the past month, Chávez enforcers have been attacking student groups that are trying to rally Venezuelans to vote “no.” Tear gas and rubber bullets have produced both physical injuries and rising fears of violence around the country. This could affect voter turnout. It also raises doubts about whether enough opposition observers can be mobilized to guard the vote on election night. If not, and Mr. Chávez “wins,” things are likely to get a whole lot scarier.

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